Has the Cable Industry Topped? Cord Cutting is Real

I have been a fan of cord cutting for a while. My wife and I have cut the cord and currently subscribed to Netflix, Amazon Video, and Spotify to name a few.

Comcast (CMCSA) was way to expensive and quite frankly all we ever watched was ESPN anyways. We never really have time to sit around and watch cable and there is no episode on TV that I NEED to watch live that can’t wait for the next day, where I can watch it for free usually online through the respective channel’s services.

So I was thinking, what do the charts of these cable companies look like? We know that cord cutting is a real thing and we do not know how far it will go. In fact ESPN is losing many more subscribers at an increasing rate ever month/year. If this trend continues, I want to look at the cable company charts and the charts of the channel networks.

Let’s start with Comcast, CMCSA

You have heard it here first. I am calling the top in CMCSA right here. This stock is up over 500% since the 2009 lows. there is a very large monthly negative divergence going on that I do not like with a monthly reversal topping tail candle. If there was ever a time over the past 5 years to short CMCSA, then this is it.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-28-56-pm

This chart got me intrigued. So I went to look at the major companies.

Charter, CHTR

Looks like a Top.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-27-48-pm

 

Time Warner Cable, TWX

Looks better than the other two, but up 6 months in a row? I am not buying it up here.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-29-36-pm

Dish Network, DISH

Already topped in 2015 and looks like a big bounce.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-43-40-pm

Let’s take a look at some of the network companies.

Disney owns ESPN and other channels. DIS

Looks like a double top and a bounce.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-47-38-pm

Scripps Networks owns HGTV, Food Network, Travel Channel, DIY Network. SNI

This looks like it topped before DIS and another big bounce that could roll over.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-1-47-51-pm

 

I am not saying you should short any of these networks because in fact the networks have their own services you can subscribe to and watch through Apple TV and Roku and the likes. but they do not look good to me. Especially Disney DIS, I am very Bearish ESPN.

I am however looking at being on the very Bearish side of Charter, Time Warner, and Comcast. They all look like Gigantic Monthly Tops to me.  

Something to think about heading into 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

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