Let’s put this all out on the table here. I am a Bear, obviously, as you see in my Stocktwits and Twitter handles. I have been Bearish since December 8th at 2246. I am heavily short the Nasdaq with an average price around 5130. I have screen shotted that so go find it.
This is the first bit of Euphoria we have seen in 3-4 years, since 2013 anyways. So it is safe to safe I was a little early.
My 2017 outlook has been clear. I am looking to sell the dollar by BUYING Pesos, Euros, and Metals. I have rolled my 401k into international stocks and emerging markets and that is likely for the next 6-8 months, at least. I am not even going to go over some of these charts I like here because they are in my feed. They consist of EWW, EWZ, EWM, EWT, EWY and others.
So Let’s dive into the closing prints.
I am not going to lie. This is a face ripper. Ever since the election (mind you I was bullish pre-election) this has been straight up. Flip this chart upside down and what are you trying to do?? I am looking to sell this (obviously I am short the Nasdaq as stated above) and likely the downturn will start next week. I thought it was this week but retail and mom and pops have to buy the #Dow20K bro. 220 test is a given, 200-205 test is likely.
This says to me says “I am reversing and engulfing this weeks candle. It’s a trap. Are you paling this Dow 22K measured move bull flag? Lolz IMO. 19K at least is a given and 18,500 test is very likely. the fact that we have had this euphoric blowout really concerns me but will assess this when the time comes.
Small Caps led on the way up, and did not make a new high. They are the leaders. Small Caps lead the breakouts, Silver leads gold, its just one of those things. I see this testing 128 as stated before soon.
The Dollar. I am more of a Forex guy anyways. I trade the Yen, Euro, Pound, Peso, Metals, Oil, etc. At 103 people thought I was clueless. Go back in my blog. There were numerous reason why I believed the dollar was not going to continue higher and was going to put in a false breakout. 1 was emerging markets. 2 was the euro. There were others as well. Is this going to bounce? I hope it does to 101.50-102ish and I am loading the boat Long Euros and Metals.
As said above. I will be looking to buy any and all pullbacks here. This SHOULD NOT drop 1160. If it does then I am wrong.
Silver leads, and the bears better hope it doesn’t close over 17.50…Oh MY. VERY BULLISH. Generational Bottom forming IMO. Just buy it.
Reiterating the Ags here like I did yesterday in my blog post. Buy this pullback.
My friend. We have been together all year ;). This may need a break but the 38-40 test is a given. If the dollar slices down this may go straight to 44. Emerging Markets are where you want to be in 2017
My other best friend. Yeah the move up probably got some of the longs out looking for a bounce. Little do they know they are about to miss the boat on the generational bottom of the Euro. If you want to take a vacation, go to Europe this year. May be the cheapest time to go in the next 20 years. (Disclaimer: I am going to Mexico this year and I am on board with my wife 100% because I think the Peso bottomed lol)
See ya next week.