Every week I do a Closing Prints to help me prepare for the week ahead and what I am looking at. It helps me portray and get my thoughts so I can be on the right side or look for turning points on the bigger picture.
Hanging Man is this weeks title due to the hanging men left on all three of the US indices. Will be interested to see if we get continuation or a Reversal next week.
(Disclaimer I am short the Nasdaq here at 5135 and flipped Bearish the S&P at 2246. I still feel comfortable with both of those right now. )
Let’s dive in.
The S&P has grinded higher and higher since the start of 2017 with dip buyers in full force buying every single hourly dip imaginable. After 8 weeks of work the trade has gone against me for 50 handles. Granted this “could” extend higher I am not under the impression it will do so.
This chart looks WORSE than the S&P IMO. This could make another high and I have fully prepared myself mentally that I will have to sit through another high of this. But when this drops the low of this week, and last week (which could happen in one day) you’re talking another 2.5 points straight down to 120. I think something happens and this reverses.
Bull flag? Still not convinced. Expecting the drop of 19,700 and the smash down 700 more points to 19000 quick.
The dollar could not reverse on the longer term candle. This is 4 straight weeks down after the massiv outside Reversal week. This is NOT good for the dollar seeing as Wall Street is very long the dollar themselves in CFTC futures and options terms. I am looking for more downside. Could this bounce to 101? Sure. Can this Panic to 98 next week? Yes!
I am playing all the other charts off the dollar. The euro, pound, peso, gold, emerging markets, they all look good on the charts. The dollar does not. Below is a clear failed breakdown reversal, I would like the dollar to bounce so I can get a better euro price but not sure it happens. This will see 1.09 soon.
I have liked the pound since the mini crash earlier this month on the big gap down. As long as this weekly candle holds (which t should) this is a long.
This is the reason why the market indices and everything is propping up. However with an inside week and down I think the Yen trade is over and it’s only time before this touches 110 again, at least.
I love the Peso. I called the top at 22. And 2 straight weeks down. Boom! Not much to see here besides short all bounces and I expect the move into 19.50 quick.
Gold is up 5% compared to the S&P 2.5% this year. However you wouldn’t know this at all because gold has done So bad. This is not good for the bears. A failed Reversal week that turned higher. I expect a 1250 test.
If this gets over 18, just load the boat.
Copper hit the MA and is pulling back. I expect this to continue. Under 2.4 I am guessing from here.
These guys are driving me bonkers. They need to bounce and rip to 125 and do it right now. I do not like it here under 120, I want that taken back and very soon!
The theme of the year. Buy Emerging Markets. Mexico, South Korea, Malaysia, Columbia, Brazil, Taiwan, etc. they are ripping. Dollar has more downside because this is testing 38 before it rests. EEM gave no one a chance to get in after it held 34. I expect a 38 test soon.
Have a Great Weekend.