I wrote an article about the dollar being the Bears last chance around the 103 level.
I believe this (bears last chance) can be no more important where we are with the indices today. The NDX has been down for 7 days this year. The Dow Jones is over 20000. And the S&P, the last but not least, has reached the top of the channel basically in a straight up motion and overbought.
Well, the bears need to show up, and need to have multiple down days and give back this overthrow of a bullish move. This has been straight up, on no volume. The bears need to show up like the Patriots did in the SB, and Bulls need to help by acting like the Falcons.
I know only price pays and that is why my NDX short is getting ripped to shreds. I am monitoring very closely and hoping to get a slam down so I can close some of it with minimal losses and play it for the larger move.
So what has been this year so far? I had nailed the Dollar top at 103, Emerging Markets bottom at 34, Gold bottom at 1150, Miners bottom under 19, WEAT bottom, Peso bottom (USDMXN top at 22). This is one I can say I have missed big league. I did not expect the market to continue to rally.
So now what for me? Well I am watching this price action closely and if I don’t get a Reversal this week I am stopping out. I can just sense that this is going to turn. Everyone didn’t believe the election move and then now that we are higher the Euphoria is still there. I am hoping for a turn in a couple days.