Sorry about missing last week, I was out of town for the Holiday and never got around to the Closing Prints. There was much of the same this week that has occurred this year and that increases the odds for next week directional moves. Let’s Dive In.
The S&P has gone straight up all year over the Trump tax plans and reform which were to be released “soon”. Now they are not going to be released until over the summer and will not “potentially” go into effect until 2018. This euphoric rally is completely built on hope, not hard data. The only issue is that hope can carry things a long way before it ends the same way everytime and markets equalize again. Considering the tax reform was the last gasp, I believe that this thing turns down soon and hard. The boys closed them on the highs one last time into the weekend and I am looking for this to turn down hard soon. First level of support is 2260 to test and what happens there will matter.
This looks more extended than the SPX. I am short this heading into next week as well. I see a clear move back under 20,000 here and what happens there matters. I am not longing ANY growth stock here that is on highs like AMZN, FB, NFLX, GOOG, etc. You are just asking to be a loser.
This is the worst chart I have seen in a while. You want to see complete Euphoria? This is it. I can possibly compare this to the 2012 breakout and you see what happens when things go up with #nodowndays. They fall hard. This will be no different this time.
The dollar has gone PERFECTLY since looking for the top at 103ish. It then pulled back and bounced at prior (new) support. With the past couple candles I am looking for the Dollar to turn down again next week and break the lows heading to 97. Not to mention that the boys are 75% long the Dollar (consensus is wonderful for counter trades and moves).
Gold will be testing this upper trendline again this year. What happens there matters! Really, Gold may pullback to 1230ish and then blast to the trendline. It may not at all. Think about this. EVERYONE who piled up gold after the election…are out and need back in…this is a weekly big V shaped rally you are seeing after the market was stretched in the wrong way (much like the US indices currently). I am looking for a break of this trendline and a 1450 test this year.
BORING. Gone nowhere. Long above the range and short below. I am inclined to be short Oil here because of the ALL TIME RECORD LONGS by the speculators (again counter consensus pays a lot) but I will wait for the break.
This is an important pivot and needs to hold. If this holds and turns up, then the move to 1.10 has 100% started. I think it does.
After calling the top at 22, you don’t want to be shorting here. Wait for the bounce and sell into 20.50-21. I believe the long term top of the USDMXN is in place.
It broke the big downtrend line but needs a little more time IMO. I EXPECT a move back into 2.5 or lower before higher. Inflation is coming.
This is a picture perfect move of the bounce at 34 and has gone straight up. I expect a pull in to 37ish and sideways before higher. If the dollar gets smashed this will continue straight up. But a break would be good for the bulls.
LONG LONG LONG LONG LONG. Record shorts in bonds and the TLT is holding ground. It just turned up to end the week and I still expect 127. What happens there matters!
If you have made it this far then great. You made it to the best chart. This is the reason why SPX NDX DJIA are in trouble. XLU has blasted off and looks VERY Bullish like it is going to highs. As you can see the last highs were 2016 lows and Brexit in the market. I believe this is headed back to highs and. The market is in trouble.
I have subscribers long $EXC and that was a quick 2% in a huge company that moves slow.
Subscribe to my newsletter. I currently have people long $EXC, $CMG, $BIDU, $GLD, $NEM which have all been good.
See ya next week.