And we are back for another week of the Closing Prints. I believe that this week will be absolutely Huge in the big scheme of things in currency land. the one chart that I am solely focusing on this week is the EURUSD. I believe that this is setting the stage for a massive run into the near future. Euro Up, Dollar Down, Metals Up, Emerging Markets Up, Indices Down.
Let’s Dive In.
Euro – EURUSD
This is a Weekly Chart of the Euro and I do not think you can argue with what the price is saying on the closes. This was a MASSIVE FAILED BREAKDOWN at the end of 2016, and the euro has checked back and held the breakdown multi year support at 1.05. I believe that you can be AS LONG AS YOU WANT the Euro with a stop below 1.05 or even 1.04 to be safe. Upside Target? 1.12 then 1.16 then 1.20 this year. (I’m serious, so many people are on the wrong side of this if this breaks up). The Euro rate decision is Thursday which will likely be a catalyst for either direction.
Yen – USDJPY
The yen in my opinion has been the prime reason for the indices roaring. Every single time the indices begin to breakdown (i.e. the dow drops 50 points) the yen will rip upwards to save SPX from a breakdown. The indices are massively disconnected from the other assets and you can see that by comparing the charts. This is an important week for the dollar, yen, euro as this may dictate the next moves. If USDJPY get over 115 then if could move back to new highs and push the indices higher, however if it is hurt by the Euro being bullish and drops 112 then you will see 109-110 fast. Pick a side.
Peso – USDMXN
I called the top at 22 and I am still very bullish the Peso in 2017 (bearish USDMXN). Do you short it now? Lol no. You what for a bounce, you already missed the train. I am looking to short this again into the 20.50+ area. You can try and bounce this, but long term I believe rallies will start to be sold.
Gold – GLD
Gold rallied massively off the lows and now needs to hold the gains. the rally to 1250 was not surprising now what it does here MATTERS. This needs to take back this engulfing week and will likely be affected by what the Dollar and Euro does this week. Watching.
Oil – USO
Has done absolutely NOTHING for over 3 months. DO NOT MAKE THIS HARDER THAN IT IS. Below 51 is a short, above 55 is a long. Anything in between is just Noise. I do however believe picking a side and anticipating the move is better than waiting for the break, just have a stop and manage risk.
Dollar – DXY
Clear pattern here. The dollar looks as if it could roll over, however it is trying to hold for the bulls. Over 102.5 and this will go to new highs, below 100.50 and I think you see 97 quick. The euro and dollar are what to watch this week!
DJI – Dow Jones
I never EVER thought we would make it to that trend line and we did.If you are buying right now, you are toast. If you are buying last week or the week before, you are toast. No I AM NOT a permabear I am just a realist. Does this keep going? I don’t know, but I will not be buying at these levels, there is way more value elsewhere for my attention. My gut feeling is that we witnessed a capitulation type move on Wednesday with the 1% blowoff at the top of the rally. Flip this chart over, this is what a bottom looks like. I think the gains in 2017 have been made and the rest is just noise. My 401k is currently in cash and international and I am completely fine with that. Down from here.
SPX – S&P 500 and QQQ – Nasdaq
Not sure what to say besides I have been wrong for 140 points. I do however believe we will AT LEAST see 2260 in the near future and if I am right about the capitulation then this is way lower. ZERO VALUE here for my in DJI, NDX, and SPX.
I am strictly focusing on currency land this week in the forex market, I believe this could be the BEGINNING to some massive moves…
If you have made it this far and you like what I do and I have helped you at all, Tip me here, I would really appreciate it. You are about to make ALOT of money on this Euro play I believe…