Last week I was short Oil into the RECORD long speculation and it paid off. This week, even though I got stopped out, I will be buying bonds in the 401k into the RECORD short speculation. These crowded trades that are MULTIPLE standard deviations away from the mean are not what you want to be on the side of. A prime example is how Oil reacted this week, a 2 day massive unwinding of 4 months of buying. This leads into TLT and the massive record short sellers into bonds. If anything comes out Bullish bonds next week, these guys are toast. I do not have TLT here but one reason I am Bullish bonds is because I am bullish euro. Euro up, Dollar Down, Bonds Up, Bond short sellers fried.
Let’s dive into more.
Look at this beauty. Just a MASSIVELY Bullish setup. Failed breakdown of multi year support and then a retest of this support. Then guess what, it HELD the retest. Just rocket fuel to 1.15-1.20 this year. Load the MF Boat Baby.
After a Yuge bounce, gold got rejected at the MA and pulled back to 1200. 1195-1200 is a must hold at this support level. With a move over 1225 I feel like a V shaped rally may be in order. With the Market pulling in over the next few weeks I think Gold rallies! Oh and maybe Bitcoin bugs will come back to Gold (Joke)
Ripped up to the trendline and now has pulled back. I still would not even consider new highs until a 110 test, but the BOJ and company continue to ramp the Yen even though the dollar gets smoked some days. This is in its own world and not really correlated with much directly anymore. I personally think it is being manipulated but that is just me. When he GBPUSD and EURUSD are way up, and the DXY is down…and USDJPY is up, that is manipulation. Market forces will take over, we will see 110.
I am bullish the pound, but this doesn’t look good. See what happens next week.
Afte calling the USDMXN top at 22, I want to be selling the rally back into 21 ish or 21.50. This was a Big time trade against consensus. I want to be longing EWW and Mexico on weakness as the Donald just bottomed the Peso.
I’m not calling tops as I have been intermediate wrong, but the gains for 2017 I believe are mostly in. Zero value up here. You are foolish buying longterm at these levels (likely levels for the next couple months)
Buy me up boys, we are going to the moon. Flip this chart over and you are saying that is a panic low, but this one people are buying it, insane.
Vey very bullish. Almost as bullish as the Euro. Long and holding the MA, going to make a move to 78 next week.
Wanna see what a crowded trade looks like? Look Below. A complete unwind of 3 months in 72 hours. That is why you don’t chase record long speculation…and the same reason why you should not be shorting bonds now. Crashes and breakouts don’t happen when everyone is looking for it…