“Da Dollar is Done. Everyone who was super bullish Dollar to start 2017 is considered wrong until $DXY takes back 101.79. the Weekly candle that the dollar just put in says there is further downside to come.
When you factor in the FED is done hiking until at least the fall, the COT having 73% of the speculators long (currently on the wrong side), Europe is about to raise rates and now, and the fact that the Dollar is down almost 2% for 2017 (you would never guess this though), I think that the dollar is rather bearish.
So let’s just start off with…
DXY – Dollar
Until the dollar takes back this Bearish Reversal Candle, I do not want to hear anything about the Dollar being “boolish”. And if 99.40 drops I am expecting the trip to 96-97 to play out very very fast. This leads us to…
GLD – Gold
Gold. I can ount 10 reasons on this chart of why you should have given Gold the benefit of the doubt last week and holding the 114 support area. This level has been huge all the way back to before the bubble. Now with the Dollar trapping A LOT of bulls, I expect this to escalate the price of gold and gold to rip up from this level. Not to mention everyone was talking about triple digit gold last week…lolz. Gold is up like 6-8% in 2017 and you would think it is down 15%.
EURUSD – Euro
The Euro is another reason why the dollar will continue to go down. the ECB is about to hike rates and the US FOMC is done hiking at least to September? Everyone thinks the euro was going to parity…it wasn’t. This chart says it all. The euro has held multi year support and moving up. I expect the euro to make a move to over 1.09 very soon and honestly this train may not wait for anyone.
USDMXN – Peso
I am actually going to be very vocal about the Peso because I believe that I was the ONLY person calling the Peso Bottom (USDMXN Top) on fintwit after Trump won the election. Trump bottomed the Peso. Look at the chart, no you do not short it here, I am hoping to get a bounce back into the 20-21 area to short some more. (Also over the next month because I am going to Mexico and I want cheaper Pesos) After calling the top at 22 I am expecting a bounce in this area to reshort.
QQQ – Nasdaq
The QQQ’s broke and is on the right side of my parabolic trendline so it is in trouble 🙂 But seriously, I think this is down and soon. This is about the only thing I have been consistently wrong about in 2017. I did not think it would go this far.
DJIA – Dow Jones
This is seriously about as technical as you can get. I didn’t think it would hit the top of this Massive channel going back to 2008, but it did. Now it is either NO WHERE or DOWN. Two options IMHO.
USO – Oil
After nailing the Oil trade, I do not want ANY part of this for a while. A lot of unwinding of longs need to be done and someone is going to have to step in and make a stand with oil. Until that happens, I am ignoring.
GBPUSD – Pound
Another reason why the dollar gets smoked is because the pound is ready to rip to the upside. with the weekly RSI trend break I am looking to be long the pound against the dollar.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
Bitcoin, let’s talk a little bitcoin. Bitcoin got hit over the weekend, not sure if it was some China BS, or ETF BS, or something else. All I know is that if price is over 950, you want to be long. did you buy that dip? I did. If it goes back below sell, but as long is bitcoin is holding 1000 you have to be long this. Price target of mine is $2000 but who knows how high is can go. Look at ETHUSD 🙂
TLT – Bonds
Bonds shorts are just so screwed. Just like oil longs, you are playing with the crowd and the crowd is wrong. this says UP, NOW, FAST.
AUDUSD – Australian Dollar
This may actually look better than the Euro…
Anyways, see ya next week.