This is my BEST minimal risk long term contrarian call of 2017. I mean this has potential to be a 2% loss or a MEGA decade long winner.
The Euro is seriously at the largest make or break point in its’ most recent history. There is defined support at the two ride lines below, 1.04648 and 1.05054. This is why last week was important. HUGE inflection point.
The Euro closed above both of those levels. The bears had their chance. They pressed for 3 weeks and the bulls held the line. This is a big war going on here and looking at this chart I give the advantage to the bulls.
Let’s work with some hypotheticals here.
- Euro breaks down and goes to parity. That one is easy and I am wrong. Big deal and I am out 2 %.
2. Euro has a “failed breakdown” and reverses back into the range. Let’s play this out below as a possibility. I think you are looking at 1.14 as the first target. 1.09-1.10 is almost a given.
3. Let’s say the second hypothetical happens and this Euro failed breakdown is much bigger than anyone thinks (obviously a long term dollar top occurs). See what I am seeing…
Is this going to go in a straight line? OF COURSE NOT. Do I think it gets there faster than a lot of people think? Yes.
I believe this is a generational contrarian view that is worth watching and I do not believe 1.16-1.20 is out of the possibility for 2017.